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When I look up the word наверное I always see two definitions:
These two definitions mean completely different things to me but I don't know how to interpret what is meant based on context.
Ты читала эту книгу?
Наверное нет.
Is she saying that she definitely hasn't read the book, or that she isn't sure but probably hasn't? How do I interpret sentences with наверное in general?
In modern Russian наверное means "probably but I am not sure". But is seems like that in times of Tolstoy it meant possibly both or just "for sure" - many who read classical Russian literature could confirm that.
On the other note the word наверняка, which is of the same root, means "definitely" or "for sure". Which is kinda puzzling indeed.
answer to your quote would be "that she isn't sure but probably hasn't?"
"Наверное" - brings uncertainty in to the sentence and than flowing word is defining whether its more yes or no ...
translation would be the same that you have.
When it is an adverb (modifying something), it means certainly, as in "я наверно придумаю что-нибудь плохое," which means "I will certainly come up with something bad."
When it is separated by punctuation, typically commas (or pauses in speech), it means probably. I would have written the answer as "Наверно, нет." For instance, take Okudzhava's Song About Combat Boots:
А где же наше мужество, солдат,
когда мы возвращаемся назад?
Его, наверно, женщины крадут,
и, как птенца, за пазуху кладут.
Of course, lots of confusion exists. For example, the Russian Wiki entry for the comedy The Gods Must Be Crazy is punctuated. But the meaning is almost the same.
I think the negation in your example is making the difference between the two loom large. Certainty, roughly speaking, is just probability going to one. An example of this is "almost sure/certain convergence" in math, which is translated as "почти наверное сходимость" in K. A. Borovkov's English-Russian Dictionary on Probability, Statistics, and Combinatorics, 1994.
