I understand that there are a variety of ways to say "probably," which depend on the context (my attempt at translation in parentheses):
вероятно (a bit literary, more in reference to likelihood) наверно (more colloquial than above) возможно (more in reference to a possibility) скорее всего (implying something of the highest likelihood) может быть (maybe, could be, can be) пожалуй (seems more casual)
As a non-native speaker, should I default to using some of these words over others? Are these generally interchangeable, or is it confusing if one is said instead of another? Basically, it's hard for me to tell which is best to use in different contexts.