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I believe that both of these adverbs are used to express "must" in assumptions. I wonder if they're completely synonymous, or if one carries a different set of semantic nuances from the other?

Наверняка/вероятно вчера с Андреем что-то случилось.

Something must've happened to Andrey yesterday.

(... he never showed up, etc.)

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    certainly/probably – Anixx Jun 5 '14 at 14:09
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    "Наверняка" is also more colloquial. – Vitaly Osipov Jun 6 '14 at 5:14
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The exact meaning of the words are as Vi said, one shows a high probability and the other a certainty. In usage, however, they are both used to express the same concept but, Наверняка is colloquial while Вероятно is more literary.

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  • Thank you for that clarification - that's the pivotal point I was looking for :) – CocoPop Jun 6 '14 at 17:15
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  • "Вероятно" is like "probably" or "likely";
  • "Наверняка" is like "for sure".

If the statement about Andrew's calamities is expected to be overestimated (i.e. a mother which always worries about her son), "наверняка" may sound better.

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It might be added that until (I believe) around the early XXth century "наверное" meant "certainly" whereas today by some reason "наверно" seems to be more towards "вероятно" than "наверняка"

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